Debt Limit Extentions

Stephen Bernard, in a WSJ article today, on some of the potential market action over the coming week depending on how the debt limit conversation plays out.

Key points from their perspective:

--"Markets bracing for a rocky start if no U.S. debt deal is announced"

--"Relief rally could kick off the week if deal made"

--"Terms of deal could weigh heavily on risks of ratings"

Boehner's scheduled appearance for this evening to discuss a plan passed without apparent comment from his office. If no deal is reached, or even if only a short term deal is reached, long term bonds would suffer with ten years increasing from 2.964% or 3.10% Monday alone according to John Canavan, market analyst at Stone and McCarthy Research Associates. In this case we'd probably also see moves toward commodities and into Yen and Swiss Franks due to their stability.

There's likely a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens, though. If a long term plan does come out it will be interesting to see how significant the ensuing rally becomes.

If the outcome is a short-term solution that gets us through until 2012, it will be interesting to see what happens politically. Obama's already said he'd veto such a bill, but that was when there was sufficient time to do something different, with the deadline 9 days away, he may be whistling another tune.

Scary Stats - Inflation Edition

I've read much lately on the rise of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy. And, I by no means am saying that there's nothing there. Pulling the Monthly Chart of Annual CPI change up to 2000+, the rise has been quite profound (increasing by over one point since October, 2010).

That said, another way to view inflation is through the change in the Gross Domestic Price Deflator. While this is only updated on a quarterly basis, the price deflator gets around some quirky issues with some other price indexes. Specifically, it accounts for changes in consumer behavior. It also has been increasing since July of 2009.

Tim Burgess' City View : Wanted: Police Accountability Review Board Members

Given that my first real post dealt with the OPA, I thought I'd give this a shout out as well. This could be a very interesting position for anyone with a passion for Justice and the justice system.

Tim Burgess' City View : Wanted: Police Accountability Review Board Members

Some Scary Stats - Employment Edition

Today, I pulled some data around employment, or lack thereof.

The data are pretty scary. From July, 1967, through to just prior to the recession starting in January of 2008, the average number of median weeks of unemployment was 7.1. Since November, 2009, we have only seen one month where the median was below 20 (February, 2010, at 19.6 weeks).

Furthermore, we're still seeing a slightly positive (which is bad) trend in the number of weeks even now.

To put this another way 50% of unemployed people remain unemployed for nearly half a year.

Another data set I thought particularly poignant was that of the employment ratio. As we all hear, the unemployment rate is hovering around 9 percent and change. But, viewing the recovery in terms of the official unemployment rate is a little biased since people who aren't looking for work aren't counted in the figures... and, with unemployment lasting so long, it's likely that people are becoming disenchanted and falling out of consideration.

A different way to look at how we're doing on the job front is through the Employment Ratio. This measures the number of people employed in the civilian sector as a percent of the number of civilians.

Here we see the positive trend from the mid-'70s through early '00s with the rise in women within the workforce and the drop corresponding with the latest recession. Taking the average employment and unemployment rates for the two years prior to the recession (2006-2007) and comparing to the level in June we find that the Unemployment rate has increased by 4.6 and the employment rate decreased by 4.8 points.

Interestingly, while the unemployment rate has dropped by around half a point since the first half of 2010, the employment rate has also dropped by 0.4 points. My guess at the point discrepancy would be those who are no longer searching for work.

New Sources Of Government Revenue

A new, if completely cynical, means of funding state governments was recently brought to my attention by Michael Ashton at E-piphany who received a letter from the Department of Labor stating in part:

“The New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development (Department) was required to borrow funds from the United States Treasury in order to pay Unemployment Insurance benefits. Payment of the interest on the outstanding loan balance starting January 1, 2011 is due September 30, 2011.

“As required by N.J.S.A. 43:21-14.3, the Department must assess all employers for the interest due…

“The calculation of your Federal Loan Interest Assessment for 2011 is shown below. Payment is due 30 days from the mailing date of this notice. After 30 days, interest will accrue at the statutory rate of 15% per year.”

Now, my assumption here is that New Jersey's Department of Labor received this Federal loan at rates much lower than the 15%. So, all governments appear to need to become revenue positive is borrow funds from the Feds for things that employers are mandated to pay then pass the costs on at a significant APR to said employers with a minimal window for payment without penalty.

Mariner's Are Baseball's 7th Hardest Team To Root For...

This however, may be the most useless trivia to make it in a Journal.

Development Permit Applications Up Significantly In June

According to Diane Sugimura, the director of the Seattle Department of Planning and Development, there were 47 Master Use Permit applications in June. Up from an average of 35 per month through May and substantially exceeding the former 3 year high of 38 in a month.

The increase may, however, be at least in part a result of builders having excessive stalled projects in the past which are being wrapped up rather than a substantial influx of new construction and the jobs growth that would entail.

Need For Jobs Growth Spurs Regulatory Reform

In an effort to promote employment in Seattle, Mayor McGinn and City Council President Richard Conlin, announced last Friday refinements to development regulations. These changes should increase the speed of new construction projects breaking ground.

According to McGinn’s post on the topic, “[t]he Seattle Building Trades Council estimates that as many as 2,400 direct, family-wage jobs in skilled construction-trades could be created through this effort.”

Phone Book Opt Out

FINALLY!

Only a few short days after receiving yet another worthless phone book, I find out that the people who brought us Do Not Call and Do Not Mail lists are now giving us the opportunity to remove ourselves from what was until now the endless cycle of phone books.

Check your mail – We got ours today!

A novel concept...

A couple weeks ago, Seattle City Councilmember Richard Conlin posted a breakthrough idea while discussing the past year’s legislative session and Seattle’s successes within it, stating, “…by limiting our big asks to a few items and focusing attention on small but important pieces of legislation that did not raise major controversies, we were able to have one of our most successful sessions ever.”

In my mind this was the absolute folly of the healthcare act under Obama. Not the “Death Panels” or the “Socialization of America.” Rather, the simple fact that in creating one large bill that aroused substantial controversy, the government (both the Administration as well as Legislature) was forced to provide incentives, loopholes and harsher wording to get enough votes for passage.

Had the Administration instead managed the debate through small bills that didn’t raise major controversy, they could have held up quick, easy, irrefutable wins to gain public credibility and support. Further, they would not have been subject to the “it’s so large no one has read it” line that carried significant resonance during the debates. And, they could have looked for different people to carry different portions of the larger agenda with little need to give away the house to ensure the required votes.

The downside of all of this, of course, is that it wouldn’t have been THE healthcare bill, and in being drawn out it would have become boring, irrelevant to today’s cable media reporting… but then, in being boring, it may also have become depoliticized allowing more ideological opponents of the Administration to have leeway to find smaller bills that they liked.

Will this local lesson set us on a new path toward a more enlightened legislative stance? Probably not, but hopefully it will be kept in mind as we push forward through this economically and politically difficult terrain.

What's your big idea? Or, My dream for Seattle is...

What do you want Seattle to build toward over the next twenty years? Come lend your voice to the shared vision of Seattle’s future. It’s time for Seattle’s Department of Planning and Development to update our comprehensive plan for the next 2 decades.

Join in the process by taking their survey, just remember to provide them with an adequate account of what your dream for Seattle is.

2010 SPD Stats

Anyone else out there feel like there's been a rise in the number of Seattle Police Department issues over the past couple years? My first thought here was that this was merely recency bias rearing its head once again. Or, perhaps, there were more media reports because the Infotainment Gods demanded more b.s. for the masses.

Well now there's data to help give some answers.

First, something to hold in the mind while reading the data: According to the Seattle Police Department's Office of Professional Accountability's (OPA) 2010 Statistics Report, overall use of force by SPD decreased to 1/5th the national rate by 2009. Furthermore, the number of officers without a complaint within the year has increased from 2008 to 2010 by almost 3 percentage points (79.6 to 82.5 percent). This increase appears to be the result of a decrease in the number of officers with 1 complaint within the year.

Some good news to be sure, however, the percent of officers with 2 complaints has more than doubled over the two years from 1.3% to 2.7%. Looking specifically at use of force complaints, contrary to overall complaints, the number of officers with one complaint did not change in 2010 compared to 2008 and yet the number of officers with two complaints increased from 7 to 13. Additionally, while SPD's use of force was around 20% of the nation in 2009, it increased by 30% in 2010 and where that puts SPD is not discussed in OPA's report.

In his recent blog post, Tim Burgess mentioned that while the SPD argues that the use of force is substantially under the national average, "[s]ome members of the community believe that use of force complaints are underreported because citizens are leery of complaining or don't trust the OPA to properly investigate such complaints." The OPA plans to pursue this line of question through independent investigation.

So, what do these data suggest? My initial interpretation would be that the rise in the percent of officers with multiple complaints, and specifically use of force complaints, should be taken as more important than the increase in the percent of officers who have no complaints or reduction in those with one. Multiple infractions for a single officer seems more likely to indicate an issue that needs to be solved, and a rise in this number is troubling. Other data that would be interesting to see would be to look at the officer pool by the total number of complaints per officer. Do the same officers get complaints not only multiple times per year, but multiple years in a row?

First Post - What it's about...

Hello out there in Blogoland.

While I'm not sure where this will be a year or two - much less ten - down the road, I see this as a repository for random ramblings. From economic to political, philosophic to scientific this site will be as varied as my interests, and represent a place for me to keep track of where I've been and what I've been thinking.

Join in as you see fit.

Sam