Sunday, February 19, 2012

Employment Impact Of Modern Recessions

Calculated Risk earlier today posted some interesting graphics comparing the job losses for recessions since the 30s.

Compared to all other recessions since the Great Depression, the one beginning in 2007-2008 has by far been the most devastating from an employment perspective, which is arguably the most important economic metric.


That said, judging the current recession versus the great depression, puts things in a very different perspective.

Forecasting a linear trend from the low of the current cycle through the data presented would argue for another 2-2.5 years before hitting the same number of jobs as we had in the prior peak.

However, as evidenced by the Great Depression data, the numbers can plunge again even after a positive trend presents itself. It took an additional 2.5 years to get to the same number of jobs after the second dip occurred around 1937 (which coincided with Fed changes as "hawks" pushed for higher rates to ward off inflation fears).

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